The SHo Six-Pack (Page 5 of 6)
Wireless
There are three distinct wireless issues that need to be considered at the
millennium. These are:
- Mobile wireless
- Fixed wireless
- Wireless LANs.
The reason the U.S. appears to be behind the rest of the world in the use of
mobile wireless technology is that there hasn’t been a compelling need that
can be met by mobile wireless. First, a reasonable quality telecommunications
infrastructure is in place in the Unites States. Contrast this to some of the
emerging markets, including some in Eastern Europe where the existing
telecommunications infrastructure is either non-existent or of suspect
quality. Second, most of the U.S. population is in areas serviced by that
infrastructure. There is a tendency to point to Finland and Sweden as a model
for wireless that should be emulated. This overlooks the sparse population
density of those regions and the compelling need that wireless meets – basic
phone capabilities to a remotely dispersed population.
Clearly we should be looking to these emerging and disbursed markets to see
what trends can be expected in mobile wireless. However, to assume that
wireless in North America is going to deploy rapidly is probably not a good
assumption at this stage.
We believe that mobile wireless may be the canard issue of 2000, at least in
the United States. While the carriers and techno-cognoscenti are extremely
bullish on third generation (3G) multi-media mobile computing, the
applications remain murky. What will drive mobile wireless computing is
mobile ecommerce, primarily driven by location-based services. For this type
of commerce, third generation will be superfluous. The benefit of mobile
ecommerce will be to enhance the efficiency and integration of transactions
within the system. Regardless of that, mobile wireless is not likely to sweep
the consumer market in the United States.
What we are likely to see in 2000 is fixed-wireless deployed to provide
broadband quality access in locales where the RBOCs or CLECs don’t elect to
participate. This will be especially true if the RBOCs continue to stymie the
delivery of DSL-quality speed and service. We believe that fixed-wireless
could have a significant positive societal impact by introducing high-speed
Internet access to remote locations around the world, making the web, truly
worldwide. An area that we believe is likely to experience significant up-take
is the use of wireless technology to link office and home devices. The
economic benefits are huge, especially when considering the space usage
profile that comes with a dislocated and transient workforce.
Part 6 - XML – Lingua Franca of the Internet
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